Ryanair Revises Traffic Forecast Due to Boeing 737 Max Delivery Delays

Ryanair, the Irish low-cost carrier, has adjusted its passenger forecast for the upcoming financial year to just under 200 million, a revision prompted by Boeing's notification that only 40 of the anticipated 57 Boeing 737 Max jets will be delivered by June. This update marks a significant shift from late January, when Ryanair was informed of a shortfall of seven aircraft, which has since escalated to 17 due to ongoing production challenges faced by the American manufacturer.

The shortfall in deliveries has led Ryanair to recalibrate its summer schedule, removing the equivalent of 10 aircraft lines of flying from July through September. This adjustment will primarily involve frequency reductions across several routes, notably affecting Dublin, Milan Malpensa, Warsaw Modlin, and four Portuguese airports, where operational costs have surged beyond inflation rates.

As a consequence, Ryanair now anticipates its passenger numbers for the financial year ending 31 March 2025 to range between 198 to 200 million, down from an initial target of 205 million. Despite these setbacks, Ryanair's CEO, Michael O’Leary, expressed continued support for Boeing as they navigate these "temporary challenges," emphasizing confidence in Boeing's senior management to rectify the delivery and quality control issues.

O’Leary also highlighted the broader industry implications of these delays, predicting a more constrained capacity and marginally higher airfares for consumers in Europe during the summer of 2024. This situation is further exacerbated by the grounding of up to 20% of Airbus A320 fleets among Ryanair's competitors, intensifying the capacity crunch and fare implications for the upcoming peak travel season.