Heathrow Expects Up To 85% Pre-Pandemic Traffic On Peak Summer Days

Like many international airports, London Heathrow Airport (LHR) is slowly clawing its way back following a dismal couple of years as a result of COVID-19. However, challenges remain before the airport reaches the high passenger levels it enjoyed before the pandemic.

Remaining cautious about 2022

Heathrow was the world's 7th busiest international airport prior to COVID-19, with almost 81 million passengers passing through the airport in 2019. However, the pandemic has taken its toll on the airport, and traffic numbers have dropped significantly. In a statement released today, the airport remains conservative in its predictions for 2022 while doing its best to shine a positive light on the upcoming summer peak season.

In February of this year, overall passenger numbers passing through the airport were almost 50% down on pre-pandemic levels. This figure equates to just 2.8 million passengers using the UK's busiest airport throughout the month. This figure is even 15% below the airport's own forecast for February, a clear indicator of just how slowly the traveling public is returning to air travel as the global pandemic recedes.

Leisure travel is the strongest sector to return

The airport reports that outbound leisure travel is rebounding the strongest of all the sectors its serves. This increase comes from frustrated UK-based leisure travelers rushing back to flying as global travel restrictions are eased. However, the return of both inbound leisure and business travelers remains sluggish.

Heathrow puts this down to the testing and quarantine requirements that are still in force in two-thirds of the markets it serves, meaning that upon return to their home country, visitors once returning from the UK are faced with restrictions once they return to their country of origin. Notwithstanding the effects of two years of travel restrictions, world events are also conspiring to suppress Heathrow's return to its former glory. While it hopes that remaining worldwide travel restrictions will be lifted in due course, the airport states that it continues to face 'headwinds.'

These headwinds come in the form of a global rise in oil prices, longer flight times due to the re-routing of flights resulting from Ukrainian airspace being closed, and the concerns held by US-based travelers regarding a broader outbreak of conflict in Europe. The shadow of COVID hanging over international travel also remains as residual fears of further variants linger. According to the airport, all these elements combined make for a very uncertain 2022.

The airport is also calling on the UK's Civil Aviation Authority to ensure that funding for Heathrow is guaranteed to promote its recovery and future growth. Commenting on the airport's cautious approach to the remainder of this year, Heathrow's CEO, John Holland-Kaye, said, "Aviation's recovery remains overshadowed by war and Covid uncertainty. But we need to ensure we are geared up to meet peak potential demand this summer and are relying on the CAA to make a fair financial settlement that incentivizes investment to maintain passenger service and encourages airlines and Heathrow to work together to grow passenger numbers."

Finding positives in its forecasts

On a more positive note, the airport is doing its best to remain upbeat about the forthcoming summer peak. Based on data it receives from its airline customers regarding forward bookings, Heathrow is expecting a busy summer holidays period. Its current forecasts show that it will enjoy traffic levels up to 85% of pre-pandemic levels. To give this figure some context, in July 2019, before the pandemic, the airport handled 7.7 million passengers in total and saw just over 42,000 air transport movements.

If these forecasts turn out to be correct, it will be welcome news for the airport's owner, Heathrow Airport Limited. However, the airport is already warning that there may be a degree of disruption to passengers as the airport returns to strength. Due to the pre-departure checks mandated by airlines and overseas countries, it expects busier check-in areas and reduced staff numbers in several key areas following the pandemic. It expresses particular concerns with the availability of border enforcement facilities for arriving passengers.

The airport states it is addressing these staffing issues by launching a recruitment drive to employ 12,000 additional employees by the summer peak. It also intends to re-open Terminal 4, which was mothballed at the start of the pandemic as passenger numbers slumped.

Normal service is resuming

In the past few months. several airlines have announced an increase of services to London's primary airport hub. British Airways, whose headquarters and main base of operations are located at the airport, is bouncing back post-pandemic. Not only has it announced a plethora of new services from the airport, but it will also be back flying the Airbus A380 on ten of its key routes by the summer of this year.